Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Moises won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 11, 2019·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(53.6%)
Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Moises
Red Corner
VS
Kurt Holobaugh
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
31
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Kurt HolobaughL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23L
vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24W
vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25L
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricKurt Holobaugh
2.52
Strikes / min
4.58
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
52%
Strike defense
49%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.65
52%
Takedown defense
38%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.88Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago MoisesKurt Holobaugh
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.3-28.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.42.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Kurt Holobaugh
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9