Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Moises won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 21, 2023·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Thiago Moises wins(62.4%)
Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melquizael Costa enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Moises
Red Corner
VS
Melquizael Costa
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
31
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Melquizael CostaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricMelquizael Costa
2.52
Strikes / min
4.38
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
2.00
52%
Takedown defense
58%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.88Δ 3.29 — meaningful gap+1.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago MoisesMelquizael Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.2-32.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Melquizael Costa
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9