Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Moises won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 11, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupThiago Moises: Submission grapplervsTrey Ogden: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Trey Ogden wins(54.1%)
Actual result: Thiago Moises wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Trey Ogden has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Moises
Red Corner
VS
Trey Ogden
Blue Corner
-166
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
31
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago MoisesL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Jan 23L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Trey OgdenW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24W
vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricTrey Ogden
2.52
Strikes / min
3.20
4.40
Strikes absorbed / min
3.49
52%
Strike defense
55%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
1.89
52%
Takedown defense
100%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.88Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago MoisesTrey Ogden
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.8-5.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Trey Ogden
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6