Middleweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 3, 2018·Belem, Para, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Anthony Smith wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Thiago Santos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Santos
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Smith
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago SantosMetricAnthony Smith
3.72
Strikes / min
3.19
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
5.04
53%
Strike defense
44%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
0.44
65%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.15Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-1.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago SantosAnthony Smith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.8-31.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Thiago Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Anthony Smith
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25