Middleweight
3 Rounds
Eric Spicely won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2016·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsEric Spicely: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Eric Spicely wins(50.0%)
Actual result: Eric Spicely wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Eric Spicely enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Eric Spicely has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Eric Spicely threatens submissions; Thiago Santos has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Santos
Red Corner
VS
Eric Spicely
Blue Corner
-800
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22Eric SpicelyL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Sam Alvey · Jul 16W
SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17L
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17L
KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18L
vs Deron Winn · Jun 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago SantosMetricEric Spicely
3.72
Strikes / min
3.71
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
5.72
53%
Strike defense
55%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
1.31
65%
Takedown defense
75%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.15Δ 3.16 — meaningful gap-2.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago SantosEric Spicely
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Eric Spicely(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+55.3-55.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+4.0-4.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Thiago Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Eric Spicely
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6