Middleweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 8, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupThiago Santos: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(53.9%)
Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Thiago Santos has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Thiago Santos has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Santos
Red Corner
VS
Gerald Meerschaert
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
42
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22Gerald MeerschaertL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago SantosMetricGerald Meerschaert
3.72
Strikes / min
2.95
2.57
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
53%
Strike defense
53%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
1.70
65%
Takedown defense
40%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.15Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago SantosGerald Meerschaert
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.61.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Thiago Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Gerald Meerschaert
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights25