Lightweight
3 Rounds
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 19, 2013·Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupThiago Tavares: WrestlervsKhabib Nurmagomedov: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(61.4%)
Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Tavares
Red Corner
VS
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Tavares
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14L
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago TavaresMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov
2.00
Strikes / min
4.10
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
1.75
62%
Strike defense
65%
3.83
TDs / 15 min
5.32
62%
Takedown defense
84%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.31Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+2.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago TavaresKhabib Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.72.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+175.0-175.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Thiago Tavares
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Khabib Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13