Lightweight
3 Rounds
Thiago Tavares won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 25, 2010·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Thiago Tavares wins(72.6%)
Actual result: Thiago Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Tavares threatens submissions; Pat Audinwood has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Thiago Tavares has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Thiago Tavares has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Pat Audinwood has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Thiago Tavares
Red Corner
VS
Pat Audinwood
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+240
(29%)
41
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
188 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Tavares
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14L
KOvs Brian Ortega · Jun 15W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16Pat Audinwood
oldest →latest
L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago TavaresMetricPat Audinwood
2.00
Strikes / min
1.17
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.31
62%
Strike defense
41%
3.83
TDs / 15 min
0.80
62%
Takedown defense
0%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.31Δ 2.83 — meaningful gap-3.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Thiago TavaresPat Audinwood
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Pat Audinwood(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Thiago Tavares
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Pat Audinwood
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2