Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ed Herman won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Sunday, January 17, 2016·Boston, Massachusetts, USA, USA
Style matchupTim Boetsch: Well-roundedvsEd Herman: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Boetsch has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Tim Boetsch
Red Corner
VS
Ed Herman
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim BoetschL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16L
SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17W
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19Ed HermanL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19W
SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21L
KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim BoetschMetricEd Herman
2.93
Strikes / min
3.31
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.71
57%
Strike defense
42%
1.45
TDs / 15 min
1.96
59%
Takedown defense
59%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tim BoetschEd Herman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.136.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-126.0126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Tim Boetsch
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights20
Ed Herman
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16