Flyweight
3 Rounds
Tim Elliott won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 16, 2025·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(70.6%)
Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tim Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Kai Asakura
Blue Corner
+265
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
39
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim Elliott
oldest →latest
L
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 21W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23Kai Asakura
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim ElliottMetricKai Asakura
3.51
Strikes / min
2.27
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
56%
Strike defense
52%
3.61
TDs / 15 min
0.00
59%
Takedown defense
50%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tim ElliottKai Asakura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Kai Asakura(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.5-15.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+364.0-364.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
Tim Elliott
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21
Kai Asakura
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2