Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matheus Nicolau won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 9, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(55.4%)
Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matheus Nicolau has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tim Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Nicolau
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
39
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim ElliottW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim ElliottMetricMatheus Nicolau
3.51
Strikes / min
3.31
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
56%
Strike defense
65%
3.61
TDs / 15 min
1.22
59%
Takedown defense
90%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tim ElliottMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-65.565.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Tim Elliott
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11