Flyweight
3 Rounds
Muhammad Mokaev won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 21, 2023·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsMuhammad Mokaev: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(50.0%)
Actual result: Muhammad Mokaev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Elliott enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Muhammad Mokaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Muhammad Mokaev threatens submissions; Tim Elliott has lost 45% of fights by sub.
- Tim Elliott has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
- Muhammad Mokaev has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tim Elliott
Red Corner
VS
Muhammad Mokaev
Blue Corner
+350
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-520
(84%)
39
Age
25
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim ElliottW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 21W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25Muhammad MokaevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Charles Johnson · Jul 22W
SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Oct 22W
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 23W
vs Alex Perez · Mar 24W
vs Manel Kape · Jul 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim ElliottMetricMuhammad Mokaev
3.51
Strikes / min
1.61
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
1.35
56%
Strike defense
57%
3.61
TDs / 15 min
5.29
59%
Takedown defense
25%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tim ElliottMuhammad Mokaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Muhammad Mokaev(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-57.157.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tim Elliott
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21
Muhammad Mokaev
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7