Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2016·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupTim Kennedy: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Tim Kennedy wins(55.5%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tim Kennedy
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
46
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim Kennedy
oldest →latest
W
vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 13W
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim KennedyMetricKelvin Gastelum
2.78
Strikes / min
3.65
1.84
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
62%
Strike defense
57%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
1.04
70%
Takedown defense
60%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tim KennedyKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.345.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+651.0-651.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tim Kennedy
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24