Middleweight
5 Rounds
Tim Kennedy won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Wednesday, November 6, 2013·Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA, USA
Style matchupTim Kennedy: WrestlervsRafael Natal: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Tim Kennedy wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Tim Kennedy wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Tim Kennedy
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Natal
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
46
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim KennedyL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13W
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 16Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim KennedyMetricRafael Natal
2.78
Strikes / min
3.10
1.84
Strikes absorbed / min
2.48
62%
Strike defense
57%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
2.55
70%
Takedown defense
77%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tim KennedyRafael Natal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.636.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+60.0-60.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.91.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Tim Kennedy
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16