Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 10, 2011·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Tito Ortiz wins(54.4%)
Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Tito Ortiz has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tito Ortiz
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-265
(73%)
51
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tito OrtizL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Matt Hamill · Oct 10W
SUBvs Ryan Bader · Jul 11L
KOvs Rashad Evans · Aug 11L
vs Forrest Griffin · Jul 12Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tito OrtizMetricRogerio Nogueira
2.59
Strikes / min
2.43
2.88
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
60%
Strike defense
59%
2.47
TDs / 15 min
0.64
54%
Takedown defense
62%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tito OrtizRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tito Ortiz(5 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Tito Ortiz
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12