Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tito Ortiz won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 2, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTito Ortiz: WrestlervsRyan Bader: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(59.7%)
Actual result: Tito Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tito Ortiz enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tito Ortiz threatens submissions; Ryan Bader has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Ryan Bader has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Bader has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tito Ortiz
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
+500
(17%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
51
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tito OrtizL4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Matt Hamill · Oct 10L
KOvs Rashad Evans · Aug 11L
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Dec 11L
vs Forrest Griffin · Jul 12Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tito OrtizMetricRyan Bader
2.59
Strikes / min
2.82
2.88
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
60%
Strike defense
71%
2.47
TDs / 15 min
3.37
54%
Takedown defense
80%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.29Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tito OrtizRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tito Ortiz(5 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.716.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tito Ortiz
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16