Lightweight
3 Rounds
TJ Brown won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 15, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTJ Brown: WrestlervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: TJ Brown wins(71.4%)
Actual result: TJ Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa threatens submissions; TJ Brown has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
TJ Brown
Red Corner
VS
Charles Rosa
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
35
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ BrownL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kai Kamaka · May 21L
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22L
SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23L
SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23Charles RosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Aguilar · Jun 20L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ BrownMetricCharles Rosa
3.37
Strikes / min
3.08
2.89
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
49%
Strike defense
47%
3.41
TDs / 15 min
1.67
36%
Takedown defense
38%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.48Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
TJ BrownCharles Rosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Brown(8 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-8.18.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+161.0-161.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
TJ Brown
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8
Charles Rosa
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13