Lightweight
3 Rounds
TJ Grant won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Tuesday, May 15, 2012·Fairfax, Virginia, USA, USA
Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(65.9%)
Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- TJ Grant has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Carlo Prater has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Carlo Prater (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
TJ Grant
Red Corner
VS
Carlo Prater
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+380
(21%)
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ GrantW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10W
SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11W
vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13W
KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13Carlo Prater
oldest →latest
W
vs Erick Silva · Jan 12L
vs Marcus LeVesseur · Oct 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ GrantMetricCarlo Prater
3.95
Strikes / min
2.03
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
4.07
56%
Strike defense
35%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
0.43
36%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.74Δ 2.78 — meaningful gap-2.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
TJ GrantCarlo Prater
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Grant(8 fights)Carlo Prater(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.418.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
TJ Grant
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8
Carlo Prater
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3