Lightweight
3 Rounds
TJ Grant won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 22, 2012·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(55.8%)
Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
TJ Grant
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ GrantW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10W
SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11W
vs Carlo Prater · May 12W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13W
KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ GrantMetricEvan Dunham
3.95
Strikes / min
5.33
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
1.82
36%
Takedown defense
79%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.74Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
TJ GrantEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Grant(8 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.13.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-108.0108.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
TJ Grant
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17