Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, September 15, 2010·Austin, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(69.3%)
Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- David Mitchell has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
David Mitchell
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
38
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ WaldburgerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14David MitchellL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Paulo Thiago · Aug 11W
vs Simeon Thoresen · Jan 13L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Jul 13L
vs Yan Cabral · Oct 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ WaldburgerMetricDavid Mitchell
2.02
Strikes / min
1.74
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.06
40%
Strike defense
55%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
0.66
40%
Takedown defense
29%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.32
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
TJ Waldburger
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8
David Mitchell
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5