Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 17, 2011·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(75.7%)
Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- TJ Waldburger threatens submissions; Mike Stumpf has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- TJ Waldburger has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
Mike Stumpf
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ WaldburgerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14Mike Stumpf
oldest →latest
L
vs Pascal Krauss · Jan 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ WaldburgerMetricMike Stumpf
2.02
Strikes / min
3.34
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
8.85
40%
Strike defense
47%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
1.59
40%
Takedown defense
33%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 5.14 — meaningful gap-5.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
TJ WaldburgerMike Stumpf
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Mike Stumpf(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.648.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-48.848.8
TJ Waldburger
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8
Mike Stumpf
Stance—
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2