Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 15, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTJ Waldburger: WrestlervsNick Catone: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(66.3%)
Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- TJ Waldburger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- TJ Waldburger threatens submissions; Nick Catone has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Nick Catone has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nick Catone has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nick Catone (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
Nick Catone
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
38
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ WaldburgerL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14Nick Catone
oldest →latest
W
vs Costas Philippou · Mar 11L
KOvs Chris Camozzi · Jun 12W
vs Tom Watson · Feb 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ WaldburgerMetricNick Catone
2.02
Strikes / min
2.11
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
40%
Strike defense
63%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
3.71
40%
Takedown defense
83%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.21
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
TJ WaldburgerNick Catone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Nick Catone(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+22.3-22.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
TJ Waldburger
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8
Nick Catone
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4