Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, October 10, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsAlan Baudot: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(71.9%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Baudot enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alan Baudot has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tom Aspinall has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Aspinall
Red Corner
VS
Alan Baudot
Blue Corner
-560
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
33
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Alan BaudotL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · Jul 21L
vs Parker Porter · Feb 22L
KOvs Josh Parisian · Jun 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricAlan Baudot
7.63
Strikes / min
5.36
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.82
56%
Strike defense
46%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
62%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.01Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom AspinallAlan Baudot
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Alan Baudot(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.5-13.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10
Alan Baudot
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights4