Heavyweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2024·Manchester, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(59.3%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Aspinall
Red Corner
VS
Curtis Blaydes
Blue Corner
-425
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
33
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'4"
198.12 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Curtis BlaydesW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Mar 22W
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricCurtis Blaydes
7.63
Strikes / min
4.18
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
56%
Strike defense
53%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
5.12
100%
Takedown defense
35%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.01Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+1.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom AspinallCurtis Blaydes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.932.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+119.0-119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10
Curtis Blaydes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19