Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(59.5%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tom Aspinall has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Aspinall
Red Corner
VS
Jake Collier
Blue Corner
-278
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Jake CollierL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricJake Collier
7.63
Strikes / min
5.80
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
5.08
56%
Strike defense
50%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
0.71
100%
Takedown defense
67%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.01Δ 3.29 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom AspinallJake Collier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.01.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.3-48.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10
Jake Collier
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights14