Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 22, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Aspinall
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Tybura
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
33
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24W
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricMarcin Tybura
7.63
Strikes / min
3.56
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
56%
Strike defense
55%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
1.30
100%
Takedown defense
70%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.01Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom AspinallMarcin Tybura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.615.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+196.0-196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10
Marcin Tybura
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights24