Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 4, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(64.8%)
Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Aspinall
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Serghei Spivac
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricSerghei Spivac
7.63
Strikes / min
3.57
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
56%
Strike defense
52%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
3.82
100%
Takedown defense
63%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.01Δ 4.67 — meaningful gap-0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom AspinallSerghei Spivac
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.4-11.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+119.0-119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10
Serghei Spivac
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15