Welterweight
3 Rounds
Tom Breese won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 27, 2016·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Tom Breese wins(63.1%)
Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Tom Breese
Red Corner
VS
Keita Nakamura
Blue Corner
-1165
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+750
(12%)
34
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Breese
oldest →latest
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16W
KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18L
KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20W
KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21Keita Nakamura
oldest →latest
L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16W
vs Alex Morono · Sep 17L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18W
vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18L
vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom BreeseMetricKeita Nakamura
3.34
Strikes / min
2.23
2.81
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
60%
Strike defense
58%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.65
70%
Takedown defense
63%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom BreeseKeita Nakamura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Breese(8 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.1-18.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Tom Breese
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Keita Nakamura
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8