Middleweight
3 Rounds
Chris Weidman won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2011·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Style matchupTom Lawlor: WrestlervsChris Weidman: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(58.4%)
Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Lawlor is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
- Chris Weidman has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
- Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Lawlor
Red Corner
VS
Chris Weidman
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
43
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Lawlor
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12L
vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16Chris Weidman
oldest →latest
W
vs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom LawlorMetricChris Weidman
2.50
Strikes / min
3.11
2.41
Strikes absorbed / min
3.37
60%
Strike defense
51%
2.46
TDs / 15 min
3.27
57%
Takedown defense
72%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom LawlorChris Weidman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Lawlor(8 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.936.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+231.0-231.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Tom Lawlor
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8
Chris Weidman
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20