Featherweight
3 Rounds
Niklas Backstrom won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 31, 2014·Berlin, Germany, Germany
Style matchupTom Niinimaki: WrestlervsNiklas Backstrom: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Tom Niinimaki wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Niklas Backstrom wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Niklas Backstrom threatens submissions; Tom Niinimaki has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Tom Niinimaki has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Niklas Backstrom has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Niklas Backstrom has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tom Niinimaki
Red Corner
VS
Niklas Backstrom
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
43
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'1"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom NiinimakiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rani Yahya · Nov 13L
SUBvs Chas Skelly · Aug 14L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Dec 14Niklas BackstromL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mike Wilkinson · Oct 14L
vs Noad Lahat · Jun 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom NiinimakiMetricNiklas Backstrom
1.91
Strikes / min
1.12
2.31
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
58%
Strike defense
40%
2.97
TDs / 15 min
2.92
33%
Takedown defense
72%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-2.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom NiinimakiNiklas Backstrom
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Niinimaki(4 fights)Niklas Backstrom(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.0-18.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Tom Niinimaki
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4
Niklas Backstrom
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights3