Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tom Nolan won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 17, 2024·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupTom Nolan: Pressure fightervsAlex Reyes: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(63.5%)
Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Nolan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Tom Nolan has 71pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tom Nolan
Red Corner
VS
Alex Reyes
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
26
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom NolanW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24W
KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25W
SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25Alex ReyesL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Mike Perry · Sep 17L
KOvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom NolanMetricAlex Reyes
5.87
Strikes / min
4.46
4.73
Strikes absorbed / min
6.92
48%
Strike defense
48%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
1.50
71%
Takedown defense
0%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.14Δ 3.60 — meaningful gap-2.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom NolanAlex Reyes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Nolan(5 fights)Alex Reyes(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.3-33.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-245.0245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Tom Nolan
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Alex Reyes
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3