Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tom Nolan won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2025·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupTom Nolan: Pressure fightervsCharlie Campbell: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Charlie Campbell wins(54.3%)
Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Nolan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tom Nolan
Red Corner
VS
Charlie Campbell
Blue Corner
-158
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+134
(43%)
26
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom NolanW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24W
KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24W
vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25Charlie CampbellW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alex Reyes · Sep 23W
vs Trevor Peek · Apr 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom NolanMetricCharlie Campbell
5.87
Strikes / min
5.23
4.73
Strikes absorbed / min
4.17
48%
Strike defense
55%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
2.45
71%
Takedown defense
62%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.14evenly matched on net striking+1.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom NolanCharlie Campbell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Nolan(5 fights)Charlie Campbell(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-2.42.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-308.0308.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tom Nolan
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5
Charlie Campbell
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3