Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tom Watson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 16, 2014·Bangor, Maine, USA, USA
Style matchupTom Watson: Pressure fightervsSam Alvey: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Tom Watson wins(50.3%)
Actual result: Tom Watson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Watson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tom Watson
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom WatsonL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13L
vs Thales Leites · Aug 13L
vs Nick Catone · Feb 14L
vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15L
vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom WatsonMetricSam Alvey
4.01
Strikes / min
3.28
4.41
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
50%
Strike defense
52%
0.15
TDs / 15 min
0.06
43%
Takedown defense
82%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tom WatsonSam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Watson(7 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-34.034.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.147.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Tom Watson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23