Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2011·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsAaron Riley: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(65.1%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Aaron Riley (53.5%).
- Tony Ferguson has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Aaron Riley
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
42
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
193.04 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Aaron Riley
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Brammer · May 10L
vs Justin Salas · Jul 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricAaron Riley
4.91
Strikes / min
3.45
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
55%
Strike defense
61%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
1.18
66%
Takedown defense
60%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonAaron Riley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Aaron Riley(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-371.0371.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.52.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Aaron Riley
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3