Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 6, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsAbel Trujillo: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(64.0%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Abel Trujillo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Abel Trujillo
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Abel TrujilloL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15W
SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16W
vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16L
SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricAbel Trujillo
4.91
Strikes / min
2.65
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
2.31
55%
Strike defense
59%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
2.18
66%
Takedown defense
40%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonAbel Trujillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.6-48.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-210.0210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Abel Trujillo
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10