Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, December 12, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(52.2%)
Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Charles Oliveira has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
42
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricCharles Oliveira
4.91
Strikes / min
3.23
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
55%
Strike defense
48%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
2.29
66%
Takedown defense
54%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonCharles Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.2-45.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36