Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 30, 2014·Sacramento, California, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(53.8%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Danny Castillo
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
42
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricDanny Castillo
4.91
Strikes / min
2.57
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
55%
Strike defense
62%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
2.95
66%
Takedown defense
63%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonDanny Castillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14