Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, June 8, 2019·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(62.9%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricDonald Cerrone
4.91
Strikes / min
4.41
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
1.16
66%
Takedown defense
73%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+30.4-30.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+210.0-210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37