Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 28, 2015·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(66.3%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Gleison Tibau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gleison Tibau has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Gleison Tibau
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Gleison TibauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Piotr Hallmann · Sep 14W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricGleison Tibau
4.91
Strikes / min
1.95
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
55%
Strike defense
63%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
4.08
66%
Takedown defense
92%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonGleison Tibau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+10.2-10.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+43.0-43.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Gleison Tibau
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18