Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R5
UFC Event·Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(57.0%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+158
(39%)
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricJustin Gaethje
4.91
Strikes / min
6.48
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
55%
Strike defense
51%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.33
66%
Takedown defense
74%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+155.6-155.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.32.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15