Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 7, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsKevin Lee: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Lee
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
42
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricKevin Lee
4.91
Strikes / min
3.88
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.60
55%
Strike defense
50%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
3.18
66%
Takedown defense
75%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+52.1-52.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+232.0-232.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19