Lightweight
3 Rounds
King Green won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 29, 2023·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsKing Green: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: King Green wins(65.8%)
Actual result: King Green wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; King Green has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
King Green
Blue Corner
+290
(26%)
Vegas Odds
—
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24King GreenW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jim Miller · Apr 24L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 24L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25W
vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricKing Green
4.91
Strikes / min
6.46
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
55%
Strike defense
62%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
1.33
66%
Takedown defense
72%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+2.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonKing Green
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)King Green(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+105.3-105.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.248.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
King Green
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8