Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 13, 2016·Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsLando Vannata: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(68.5%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Lando Vannata
Blue Corner
-800
(89%)
Vegas Odds
+550
(15%)
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Lando VannataL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Feb 20L
vs Bobby Green · Aug 20W
vs Mike Grundy · May 21L
SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricLando Vannata
4.91
Strikes / min
4.52
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
4.71
55%
Strike defense
54%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
1.24
66%
Takedown defense
66%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonLando Vannata
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Lando Vannata(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+148.6-148.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.148.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Lando Vannata
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12