Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 3, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chiesa
Blue Corner
+360
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-540
(84%)
42
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23Michael ChiesaW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sean Brady · Nov 21L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricMichael Chiesa
4.91
Strikes / min
2.02
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
1.73
55%
Strike defense
57%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
3.11
66%
Takedown defense
65%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-6.56.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22