Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 5, 2012·East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(69.0%)
Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
- Michael Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Michael Johnson
Blue Corner
-315
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Michael Johnson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23W
vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25L
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricMichael Johnson
4.91
Strikes / min
4.27
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
55%
Strike defense
58%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.57
66%
Takedown defense
81%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonMichael Johnson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+53.5-53.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Michael Johnson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights32