Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 19, 2013·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsMike Rio: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(63.2%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Mike Rio has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Mike Rio threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Mike Rio
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Mike RioL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs John Cofer · Dec 12L
SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · May 13L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Jan 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricMike Rio
4.91
Strikes / min
1.68
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
55%
Strike defense
53%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
2.58
66%
Takedown defense
0%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonMike Rio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Mike Rio(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.9-34.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+378.0-378.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Mike Rio
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4