Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paddy Pimblett won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(66.9%)
Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tony Ferguson has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tony Ferguson has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Paddy Pimblett
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
42
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Paddy Pimblett
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jul 22W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricPaddy Pimblett
4.91
Strikes / min
5.49
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
55%
Strike defense
42%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.69
66%
Takedown defense
44%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonPaddy Pimblett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+9.8-9.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-231.0231.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-2.02.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Paddy Pimblett
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8