Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 3, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsYves Edwards: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(66.0%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Yves Edwards has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Yves Edwards has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Yves Edwards
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+318
(24%)
42
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Yves EdwardsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12L
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13L
vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13L
SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14L
SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony FergusonMetricYves Edwards
4.91
Strikes / min
2.91
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
55%
Strike defense
66%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.76
66%
Takedown defense
69%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony FergusonYves Edwards
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Yves Edwards(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.8-3.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24
Yves Edwards
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10