Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Tony Gravely won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, April 17, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTony Gravely: WrestlervsAnthony Birchak: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(78.6%)
Actual result: Tony Gravely wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Gravely is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Anthony Birchak has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Tony Gravely
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Birchak
Blue Corner
-390
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
34
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tony GravelyL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21W
vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22W
KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22L
vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22L
vs Victor Henry · Mar 23Anthony Birchak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14W
KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15W
vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16L
SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tony GravelyMetricAnthony Birchak
3.82
Strikes / min
3.93
4.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.67
44%
Strike defense
56%
5.40
TDs / 15 min
0.48
52%
Takedown defense
61%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.65evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tony GravelyAnthony Birchak
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tony Gravely(8 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.6-16.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Tony Gravely
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8
Anthony Birchak
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6