Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melsik Baghdasaryan won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 15, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupTucker Lutz: Well-roundedvsMelsik Baghdasaryan: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Tucker Lutz wins(66.1%)
Actual result: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melsik Baghdasaryan has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Tucker Lutz
Red Corner
VS
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Blue Corner
+126
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-148
(60%)
31
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tucker LutzL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23Melsik BaghdasaryanL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21W
vs Bruno Souza · Nov 21L
SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23L
KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tucker LutzMetricMelsik Baghdasaryan
3.74
Strikes / min
5.04
3.25
Strikes absorbed / min
3.14
44%
Strike defense
56%
1.99
TDs / 15 min
0.00
69%
Takedown defense
72%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.49Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Tucker LutzMelsik Baghdasaryan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tucker Lutz(4 fights)Melsik Baghdasaryan(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-31.931.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Tucker Lutz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4
Melsik Baghdasaryan
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5